How We Saw the Pistachio Boom Coming (and What's Next)

At Nextatlas, we're in the business of foresight—of catching the early signals that evolve into tomorrow’s must-have products. And if there's one trend that proves the power of our data-driven prediction, it’s the meteoric rise of pistachio desserts. From the early signals of curiosity in early 2022 to the global frenzy sparked by Dubai’s viral pistachio chocolate bars, the rise of this flavor trend highlights exactly why future-focused insights matter.

From Early Signals to Mainstream Crave

Back in February 2022, our platform flagged pistachio as a flavor on the rise. Its unique nutty profile and versatility across sweet and savory dishes were capturing consumer attention. While the social media-driven food landscape may appear chaotic—where trends seem to emerge “out of nowhere” overnight—our data revealed a steady and measurable growth in pistachio-related interest well before the current hype.

Fast forward to December 2023, and we had already pinpointed another emerging layer to the trend: pistachio cream. This rich, indulgent variant was gaining traction across visual platforms, with flavor innovation clearly leaning toward exotic, nut-forward spreads and fillings. This proved to be a prescient call, as it would soon become a core ingredient in what would be one of the biggest viral food moments in recent memory: the Dubai chocolate.

The Dubai Chocolate Craze

In September 2024, a confectionery phenomenon emerged from the UAE and quickly swept the globe. The Dubai chocolate—a luxurious fusion of pistachio cream, knafeh, and premium chocolate—captured everyone's imagination (and appetite). With an astronomical growth rate of 11,177% over 18 months in our early adopter conversations, it wasn’t just a flash-in-the-pan fad; it was a full-on cultural moment.

The chocolate’s appeal lies in its blend of Middle Eastern tradition and indulgent modernity. Pistachio cream, paired with knafeh (and often times tahini), brought a textural richness and nostalgic warmth that clicked with Gen Z and Millennials in particular. The product not only satisfied a sweet tooth but also spoke to a broader craving for novel, culturally-rooted luxury that still promoted healthy ingredients.

Brands wasted no time jumping on the pistachio-powered Dubai chocolate trend. Ghirardelli launched a Dubai Chocolate Sundae for one day only on the 8th March this year, Morrisons released Pistachio Kunafa Cake Bars, and Starbucks United Arab Emirates rolled out pistachio-inspired menu items.

Soon, global giants like Lindt began producing their own versions, triggering legal disputes over the "Dubai chocolate" name. German courts successfully ruled against Aldi for misleading claims about the name, while in the UK, demand surged so high that Waitrose imposed a two-bar-per-customer limit just this month in the lead-up to Easter.

Nextatlas first flagged the broader appeal of nutty flavors in December 2023, highlighting how these profiles connect with a desire for natural, comforting nostalgia. Pistachios in particular stand out: dubbed the "green gems of flavor" in our June 2023 insight, they were already quietly influencing global taste preferences across both culinary and sensory landscapes.

This layered flavor story was already coming together in the data before the Dubai chocolate bar hit viral status in September 2024. For example, in August 2024, we highlighted the rise of chocolate tahini—a combination reflecting consumer desires for unique, indulgent flavors with a healthy twist. This mirrors the exact appeal of Dubai chocolate: a blend of rich, culturally Middle Eastern ingredients with an elevated, modern luxury feel. The bar’s success wasn’t just about sweetness—it was about cultural richness, extravagance, nostalgia for simple flavors, and perceived wellness, all themes we’d already seen surfacing across different ingredients.

By the time Dubai chocolate became a social media obsession, the signals were already there. For those using Nextatlas, the convergence of pistachio, tahini, and indulgent nutty profiles made it clear: this wasn’t a surprise. They had the foresight to anticipate a product like Dubai chocolate before it ever became a hashtag.

A Forecast for Pistachio’s Sweet Future

Looking ahead, the pistachio trend shows no sign of slowing. Even though our analysis predicts that Dubai chocolate will grow +138% over 12 months, we've continued to look for the next big thing in pistachio. In fact, we’re entering a new wave of pistachio innovation across multiple food categories.

• Chocolate Pistachio: A year-over-year growth of 62% speaks for itself. The combo of pistachio’s earthy crunch with the creamy richness of chocolate is a winning formula. European and North American markets are already loving it in formats like pistachio fudge and praline.

• Pistachio Milk: As consumers seek plant-based dairy alternatives with rich textures and subtle sweetness, pistachio milk is stepping up, especially among the eco-conscious (pistachios require less water to produce than almonds). Nextatlas analysis shows a 33% YoY increase and predicts a +87% growth in the next year alone.

• Pistachio Butter: This is the pistachio’s next big form factor. Offering both nutritional protein benefits and an indulgent taste, it’s becoming a pantry staple for the health-conscious foodie. Our forecasts show a +71% rise expected over the next year.

These developments are a clear sign that pistachio isn’t just a fleeting dessert trend—it’s evolving into a multi-format flavor driver with strong market fundamentals and long-term potential.

Trend lines, data, and information described in this article emerge from the ongoing analysis performed by Nextatlas on its global observation pool made of innovators, early adopters, industry insiders expressing their views on Twitter, Instagram, and Reddit.

To learn more about our AI, discover Nextatlas Methodology here